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Oct 29, 2012
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be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the national and electoral college. >> i find ohio numbers hard to believe. if it is tight, obama only needs to win by one point. there is dismisssiveness about what i'll say but it's true, the ground game is vastly superior to what romney has in ohio, add a cupm of points to any poll. >> does this change it? >> the storm? no. i don't think so. in the situation, i think that you have to remember from the date obama got elected, obama for america has been building campaign targeted campaign. >> bret: thank you very much. next up, what the administration said, what it kn
be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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most of the polls show obama ahead. i tend to believe that obama has a better get out the vote organization. the republicans have proven in wisconsin and n the recall that they can play on that turf which makes ohio very tough state to call. i personally i would give the edge to obama, but that is me reading tea leaves as you said. i do believe in the end ohio we'll be looking at the winner of ohio as the next president of the united states. >> greta: i think everyone feels terrible what is happening to the eastern seaboard. it's gone farther west on the hurricane and inflicted blizzard. but politically, is this something that is to the advantage of the president. can they actually move a point or two? >> i think first, it froze the race. there has not been a lot of movement. the media has been focused on sandy and less on the presidential campaign. second of all, think it's going to affect, it can affect turnout but most places like new jersey and new york. i'm not sure it's going to have an effect. on the other hand t
most of the polls show obama ahead. i tend to believe that obama has a better get out the vote organization. the republicans have proven in wisconsin and n the recall that they can play on that turf which makes ohio very tough state to call. i personally i would give the edge to obama, but that is me reading tea leaves as you said. i do believe in the end ohio we'll be looking at the winner of ohio as the next president of the united states. >> greta: i think everyone feels terrible what...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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what we've seen in the polls is president obama having a small but steady lead. mitt romney has been unable to kind of reverse that momentum here in ohio. a couple different reasons. take a look at poll. president obama big lead with women. governor romney, big lead with men. governor romney has a two-point edge with independent voters in our poll, but president obama has an almost 20-point lead with self-described moderate voters. >> that's interesting that there's a distinction those two. >> a very important distinction and hasn't happened in political history. the taeea party moving to the right. we're just in the toledo where the jeep plant s.unemployment was 13% in that city when president obama took office. now it's at 7% rate. manufacturing, the middle class, these are the sweet spots of a democratic pitch, and they have been able to say that mitt romney, a state where the bain ads, have had an effect would not be a good stewart that have reinvestment. president obama's core argument here is economic and it's also saying, look, the policies that mitt romne
what we've seen in the polls is president obama having a small but steady lead. mitt romney has been unable to kind of reverse that momentum here in ohio. a couple different reasons. take a look at poll. president obama big lead with women. governor romney, big lead with men. governor romney has a two-point edge with independent voters in our poll, but president obama has an almost 20-point lead with self-described moderate voters. >> that's interesting that there's a distinction those...
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Oct 31, 2012
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so another ppp poll just posted and a wisconsin poll shows barack obama leading mitt romney 51% to 46%, a five-point lead. we certainly have seen that in the midwest states. the breaking news -- to recap, if mitt romney wins either minnesota, michigan, or pennsylvania, come on "morning joe" and shave it. you can shave it. i'm not going to touch it. and if barack obama wins florida or north carolina, i will grow on "morning joe." >> ever had a mustache? >> i will get a guitar out and i will sing. >> have you ever had a mustache? >> no. >> and what happens in my mind right now -- >> we can glue david's mustache on your face. >> okay. >> david axelrod, it's been disgusting. >> it's grow your own. >> i'll talk to you later. thanks. up next -- >> thank you, david. >> patricia cornwell joins us. keep it here on "morning joe." or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate comb
so another ppp poll just posted and a wisconsin poll shows barack obama leading mitt romney 51% to 46%, a five-point lead. we certainly have seen that in the midwest states. the breaking news -- to recap, if mitt romney wins either minnesota, michigan, or pennsylvania, come on "morning joe" and shave it. you can shave it. i'm not going to touch it. and if barack obama wins florida or north carolina, i will grow on "morning joe." >> ever had a mustache? >> i will...
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Nov 1, 2012
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a detroit news/wdiv poll shows president obama leading 48% to 45%, which is within the poll's 3.78 margin of error. but a new "detroit free press"/wxyz poll has president obama leading by six points, 48% to 42%. now, half of those polled said that the rescue of gm and chrysler was a deciding factor in their support and 2/3 of those people backed president obama. robert reich, it seems like michigan voters have figured out who they want to give credit to for the auto bailout. >> yes, they have. although romney and ryan are doing everything they possibly can, lawrence, to confuse voters, to dissemble, to claim credit for the bailout, to actually say, believe it or not, and unfortunately some people believe big lies when they're told over and over again, that romney was in favor of the bailout and that somehow, by some stretch of the imagination the president is responsible for shrinking chrysler and shrinking gm and sending the jobs out to china. that's actually what they are saying right now. i mean, it takes lies to a new height of prevarication. >> let's listen to the help president obam
a detroit news/wdiv poll shows president obama leading 48% to 45%, which is within the poll's 3.78 margin of error. but a new "detroit free press"/wxyz poll has president obama leading by six points, 48% to 42%. now, half of those polled said that the rescue of gm and chrysler was a deciding factor in their support and 2/3 of those people backed president obama. robert reich, it seems like michigan voters have figured out who they want to give credit to for the auto bailout. >>...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about looking at this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american facility in benghazi they wouldn't have taken it to the president and the national security advisor and the president would not have been engaged and i take the president's word. >> thank you, karl, you said... >> chris: wait, let karl finish. >> blaming the -- >> juan, hold on, let karl finish. >> i did. >> no, he didn't. he didn't. >> no. >> chris: let him finish. >> if the president ordered the assistance be given and none was given until well after 7 hours later. if the cia at the clan des type annex were told three times don't engage and we had men disregard the orders of their superiors and
even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about looking at this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american...
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Nov 1, 2012
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obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for the president today. it will be more positive, less of the negative tone, ripping to mitt romney. this is his final case to what he did in wisconsin today, talking about what he would do in a second term. laying out that he wants to finish the change he talked about in the last four years. he did go negative on romney. not giving it up. he said romney claiming to be an agent of change and he knocked millions of people off the health insurance. he would go backward on wall street reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio
obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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national poll here, the national poll, this is a 49%, romney, 48%, president obama. does a national poll really mean anything because the swing states are what counts, we hear. georgia's going to be red. we know what column it's going in. it's a swing state, especially with the electoral college, does the national poll mean anything? >> national poll gives you the sense of an ebb and flow in a campaign. whether the debates or events had an effect. typically states will all sort of move together one direction or another. whether that's the case this year, you could make the argument that ohio, florida, wisconsin and nevada are all very different states but the general temperature of the campaign, i think, is best shown in those broader national polls. >> so in the swing states like in ohio, in florida -- like ohio now, 50% for obama, 46%, romney. you can do that with all of them. and then there's a margin of error. if you have a three or four-point margin of error, you'll say, obama's in the lead but he's within the three-point margin of error, you really haven't told
national poll here, the national poll, this is a 49%, romney, 48%, president obama. does a national poll really mean anything because the swing states are what counts, we hear. georgia's going to be red. we know what column it's going in. it's a swing state, especially with the electoral college, does the national poll mean anything? >> national poll gives you the sense of an ebb and flow in a campaign. whether the debates or events had an effect. typically states will all sort of move...
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Oct 31, 2012
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and i looked at the two polls that had obama plus 4. i don't think obama plus four is the right number in ohio and here is why. >> bill: what was your number by the way? >> we had it tied. 47, 47. suffolk listed all the candidates on the ballots. a couple of things of on those polls that i noticed. number one cuyahoga county was weighted at 13%. the truth about cuyahoga county from 2004 to 2008 the total votes cast in ohio went up 100,000 if you add up all the candidates but in cuyahoga county, between 2004 and 2008 which was a big year for barack obama, cuyahoga county casted less ballots in the election in 2008 than 2004. the relative strength of cuyahoga has dropped to 11% north 13%. >> bill: that's very favorable to barack obama. that's the cleveland area. so, if they are weighting that in a heavy way. >> at 13% instead of 11%. >> bill: it's reality that the vote is dropping there. it's going to be better for romney. >> true. >> bill: do you trust rasmussen, larry? you are pretty outspoken about these polls. remember, scott was on i
and i looked at the two polls that had obama plus 4. i don't think obama plus four is the right number in ohio and here is why. >> bill: what was your number by the way? >> we had it tied. 47, 47. suffolk listed all the candidates on the ballots. a couple of things of on those polls that i noticed. number one cuyahoga county was weighted at 13%. the truth about cuyahoga county from 2004 to 2008 the total votes cast in ohio went up 100,000 if you add up all the candidates but in...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or, just tied, in so man
the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no...
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Oct 31, 2012
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not every poll has obama winning in ohio. >> first if you look at the whole group of polls we have a two-point romney lead to a five or six-point obama lead, the average is going to do better a than any one poll individual think, polling is difficult now, because you can only get about ten percent of people on the money, polls are hoping that those people who they do get are representative of the ones whom they don't get, different views about who will turn out and who won't, about the, differ on the democrat grafnls and statistical uncertainty as well. >> depending on the model the poll uses will affect the result. >> a different hype these almost. >> .. if you assume a more vigorous turnout because obama has good ground game for example those have him winning, no more at that like opportunity thousand ten environment where republican enthusiasm prevail they have a very tight in ohio instead. >> rose: okay. but do you say when you look at all of these polls, i have noted you are a statistician, you noted in the polling you measure other polls? >> rightment. >> rose: do you measure t
not every poll has obama winning in ohio. >> first if you look at the whole group of polls we have a two-point romney lead to a five or six-point obama lead, the average is going to do better a than any one poll individual think, polling is difficult now, because you can only get about ten percent of people on the money, polls are hoping that those people who they do get are representative of the ones whom they don't get, different views about who will turn out and who won't, about the,...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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one of the other arguments the obama campaign makes these national polls. gallup poll has shown seven-point lead for romney. simply missing these voters who will get out again. >> we have two polling races. rasmussens and, according to the gallup and rasmussens we're headed for a landslide for romney. they missed last time by huge amounts. i don't know what's going on out there. george, none of us does, i think, i think it's going to be extremely close. i think like nicolle, it's going to be about ohio, the auto bailout. >> or miscounting latino voters. or just the science of polling. >> or the number of times i have refused to pick up my phone when i can see it's research firm. but nonetheless, i think a nightmare frankly, maybe we can all agree on this, there are some electoral college/popular vote difference. >> one scenario is that it just doesn't come down to one state, like ohio, is that you got four, five states and each one of those five is in that circumstance and we're in total confusion. >> we have december 31st coming up. >> you talk about ohio,
one of the other arguments the obama campaign makes these national polls. gallup poll has shown seven-point lead for romney. simply missing these voters who will get out again. >> we have two polling races. rasmussens and, according to the gallup and rasmussens we're headed for a landslide for romney. they missed last time by huge amounts. i don't know what's going on out there. george, none of us does, i think, i think it's going to be extremely close. i think like nicolle, it's going to...
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that shows some resurgence by president obama in the poll we did in early october. weighs down four among likely voters. he's regained the support of women voters, some of whom he lost in that first presidential debate. we see him making up the lost ground from the debates in the final weeks of campaigning. but man, 48-48 among likely voters who could call a contest like this one? >> when you talk about the gender gap, he has in your poll in the swing states at least, president obama has a huge, 26-point gender gap with women. but take a look at what men are saying about mitt romney. >> mitt romney has men -- according to your polling, fiercely pro romney. >> we have a big gender divide as you said, 26%. but look at the racial divide. when you put race and gender together, white men are going for mitt romney by 27 percentage points in this poll. it shows the divide we've had. and the way that the parties are putting together coalitions that are so extremely different from each other and divide the electorate almost evenly. >> ruth marcus, when we talk about such a p
that shows some resurgence by president obama in the poll we did in early october. weighs down four among likely voters. he's regained the support of women voters, some of whom he lost in that first presidential debate. we see him making up the lost ground from the debates in the final weeks of campaigning. but man, 48-48 among likely voters who could call a contest like this one? >> when you talk about the gender gap, he has in your poll in the swing states at least, president obama has...
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Nov 4, 2012
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the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours out? >> much different in battle ground states because of the advertising. people in ohio and people in iowa, florida, and virginia, have a different sense of the race. the reason pennsylvania is in play because there has not been a lot of advertising. in the battleground states and i was in ohio and wisconsin and iowa and what you pick up, there is a real sense of enthusiasm for the romney campaign. i did not run into one republican party who is not happy about electing mitt romney opposed to someone to beat president obama. that is a significant change. on other side, the excitement and enthusiasm i
the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours...
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Oct 31, 2012
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you have battleground polls showing a small, narrow obama lead. it is a very different state to get a grasp on. all that being said when you look at the battleground map and focus on the key states that i think the obama campaign is focused on, with key firewalls in wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida, those are the states that romney must win to win this election, in particular, ohio, virginia, florida. you stop him in any one of those three states, president obama stays president. so that's the strategy. you don't want to bleed yourself so much, even with the amount of money both campaigns have, that you actually make it easier for the other side to make inroads. >> i'm out of time but i want to ask you each really, really quickly for your guy, on the democratic side, chris, where are we going to see the president going over the weekend, the last weekend of this campaign? >> that's obvious, ohio, ohio, ohio. >> ohio, ohio, ohio. how about you, robert? where is romney going? >> ohio and most likely he will end his campaign in new hampshire. new ha
you have battleground polls showing a small, narrow obama lead. it is a very different state to get a grasp on. all that being said when you look at the battleground map and focus on the key states that i think the obama campaign is focused on, with key firewalls in wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida, those are the states that romney must win to win this election, in particular, ohio, virginia, florida. you stop him in any one of those three states, president obama stays president. so that's...
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and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our local schools... every school. for them. for all of us. vote yes on thirty-eight. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. and that's because th
and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses...
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Nov 1, 2012
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and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. and that's because the romney camp and their cohorts in the super pac world announce they're now going to start advertising there. they're pouring in over 4 million bucks in pennsylvania, 2 million in michigan, and about $1 million in minnesota. well, the obama campaign has said they're going to match all that, go to the air waves to match one that. what we're watching is both sides probably spinning their case. republicans say they're seizing new opportunities, in other words, they
and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan,...
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Oct 27, 2012
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-- >> you can take your calls in virginia, because another poll shows obama is up in virginia. even with the heavy onslaught by romney, it still shows the northern virginia area still pretty much supports barack obama. >> new hampshire could be in play. >> new hampshire traditionally was a republican state. it only presidentially became a democratic state recently . >> then bartlet came along. >> the problem for ravi here is that unless he gets the search, it is close enough that if he loses ohio and virginia, let's say, or ohio and wisconsin, he pretty much passed to run the table in the other ones. >> you can get very confused unless you are a junkie trying to figure out the permutations, but everybody agrees that the path is clear and simpler for all of the then romney, even though it is a close race. -- clearer and simpler for obama that romney, even though it is a close race. >> a lot of talk about potential ties to the electoral college. >> which i think is a beach. but let's be clear, at the momentum is for romney and has been since that first debate. nina and to the new
-- >> you can take your calls in virginia, because another poll shows obama is up in virginia. even with the heavy onslaught by romney, it still shows the northern virginia area still pretty much supports barack obama. >> new hampshire could be in play. >> new hampshire traditionally was a republican state. it only presidentially became a democratic state recently . >> then bartlet came along. >> the problem for ravi here is that unless he gets the search, it is...
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. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to the incumbent. you've known the incumbent for four years, you've gotten used to it, you know what to expect. the challenger, if you're still undecided, there's a tendency to break for the challenger. >> do we think this election really will be this close? >> yes, i think it will be this close. i'm going to be anchoring our coverage, as you know, tuesday night, so i'm getting ready for a long night. four years ago at 11:00 p.m. on the east coast when the polls closed on the west coast, california, oregon, washington state, hawaii, we projected a winner of 270-plus electoral college votes for barack obama. i don
. >> a national poll showing romney's national favorability at 53%, just shy of obama at 54%, there used to be a much greater gap there, are we saying that turn decideds are certainly playing a role in a big way here? >> yes, i think that usually, in most polling experts, most of the political experts who have studied this over the years, if you're undecided at this late stage, you have a tendency numb necessarily huge numbers, but in bigger numbers for the challanger as opposed to...
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it showed barack obama as a commander in chief. the gallup poll was knocked off. it was his best poll. it showed the two competing businesses. not only did you have chris christie out there, but you also have bob mcdonnell of west virginia, another republican surrogate, who said the obama administration's response has been incredibly fast. >> i wouldn't go that far. they came in separately and they left separately. but sometimes governors have to do what governors do and presidents have to do what presidents do. i get that. and i think for the moment, your man probably got some. john, i want to ask you, i've been reading in the newspapers -- you correct me if i'm wrong. your superpack and other republican super packs have put $4 million into pennsylvania. team obama, only $625,000. for $4 million, jonathan, you want a rate of return better than a utility executive. you want to actually win the race in that state. >> we wouldn't be spending the money if we didn't think that there were real opportunities in michigan, pennsylvania, and minnesota, as well as wisconsin
it showed barack obama as a commander in chief. the gallup poll was knocked off. it was his best poll. it showed the two competing businesses. not only did you have chris christie out there, but you also have bob mcdonnell of west virginia, another republican surrogate, who said the obama administration's response has been incredibly fast. >> i wouldn't go that far. they came in separately and they left separately. but sometimes governors have to do what governors do and presidents have...